Time to Pay Attention to Egypt

If you have watched any of the international news over the last week, then you know there are riots and protests going on in Egypt. What you may not know is that these riots have the potential to really affect life here in the United States, and to change the face of the world.

What’s going on in Egypt?

Starting on January 25th, people took to the streets to protest the current government in Egypt. This government, though an ally of the United States, is a very heavy handed government. As of this writing, Hosni Mubarak is the president of Egypt. He has honored a peace with Israel, and has worked to keep arms from flowing into terrorists hands.  However, he is a brutal dictator, and citizens of Egypt want a better President with free elections.

What changed?

Somewhere around Friday, the Muslim Brotherhood and radical elements within Egypt tried to take control of the protests. If you are not familiar with the Brotherhood, you should know that it is possibly the grandfather of today’s terrorists groups including Al-Queda.   Hamas has also been at work inside Egypt. Since these two groups set up and took notice, the protests have become riots. The current official death toll lists 97 dead with thousands more wounded. There is an estimated 60% of police stations that have been set on fire. “Civilians” wielding knives and machetes have taken to the street to provide their own “police”. Rumors are circulating Egypt that a few thousand Brotherhood members from prison have been set loose by sympathetic police.

What about this Mohamed ElBaradei guy?

A number of reports (across CNN and Fox News) hinted over the weekend that perhaps ElBaradei could be the guy to step in and take over the country. ElBaradei is the former UN weapons inspector from Iran. He has been accused of accepting money from Iran to show them how to hide their nuclear weapon program. He is on the record denying the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. The last thing we need in power in Egypt is someone who is sympathetic to both the Brotherhood and Iran.  If ElBaradei gains power in Egypt, the situation may be no better for the citizens of Egypt, and would be much worse for the United States.

How can this affect us?

Egypt is one of our largest allies in the Middle East.  Egypt and Jordan are the only two Middle Eastern countries to enter into long treaties with Israel.  Egypt also can control the Suez Canal.  This is an important shipping channel.  If it were to close, prices for many things would instantly jump.

The protests and riots closely resemble the riots that took place in Iran when President Carter was in office.  If the Muslim Brotherhood was able to get someone sympathetic to their cause (such as ElBaradei) in power in Egypt, we could see the development of an “Iran-like” regime in Egypt.  This coupled with an empowered Brotherhood could greatly increase terrorist activities throughout the world.

In a true doomsday scenario, if Egypt were to become fundamentalist, there is a chance it could band together with Iran to create a new Islamic caliphate.  I don’t think this is as much of a danger given the religious differences between Shiite and Sunni.  However, it is one more reason to keep an eye on the situation.

What should the US do?


This is a tough situation for the United States.  I support freedom everywhere.  That means I would prefer a free and open society in Egypt.  However, if “elections” were held tomorrow, more than likely the Brotherhood would be able to intimidate enough voters to get into power.  This isn’t a free election any more than the elections that are currently being held in Egypt.  The United States is currently applying a lot of pressure to the Egyptian government. There are two steps the United States could take that would greatly improve the situation in Egypt in the long term.

First, the US should pressure Egyptian President Mubarak to step down, but not immediately.  There are elections scheduled for September.  President Mubarak should announce that he will not be on the ballot in September.  I think this would give a big victory to the protesters, and would allow some stability in Egypt.  {To show how fluid the situation is in Egypt, President Mubarak is now rumored to be ready to announce he will do this.}

Secondly, we should work with pro-freedom movements within Egypt.  There is a difference between this and pro-democracy movements.  We want a free and open society in Egypt.  If pro-freedom groups are given the chance to flourish, it will make it more difficult for terrorist groups and fundamentalist groups to gain power.  A pro-democracy group may not have that  same distinction.

 
 
 

» archives